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Anna v. D.

Tragisch

Revisado en Alemania 🇩🇪 el 10 de enero de 2020

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Zbigniew Brzezinskis Werken haftet etwas Tragisches an.

Seine Bücher sind getragen von dem Wunsch, die Stellung der U.S.A. in der Welt auszubauen bzw. zu erhalten, doch die Politik scheint wild entschlossen zu sein, seinen Ratschlägen partout nicht Folge leisten zu wollen. Sein Werk "The Grand Chessboard", erschienen 1997 auf dem Gipfelpunkt des unipolaren Moments der Weltgeschichte, mit den U.S.A. als einzigem Welthegemon, sollte den Weg weisen wie auf das amerikanische 20. Jahrhundert ein ebenso amerikanisches 21. Jahrhundert folgen könnte. Seine Analysen waren hellsichtig, die daraus abgeleiteten Handlungsanweisungen folgerichtig. Allein, die Administration G.W. Bush schien das Buch als negative Folie verwendet zu haben, denn all das wovon der Autor in seinem Werk abriet, wurde von der Bush II Administration mit allergrößtem Eifer ins Werk gesetzt. Die Folge ist kein amerikanisches 21. Jahrhundert sondern die Einleitung des Abstiegs von der allumfassenden Position des Welthegemon.

Als 2011 das Buch "Strategic Vision" in erster Auflage erschien, war dieser relative Abstieg bereits spürbar und fand in der strategischen Untätigkeit der Obama-Administration seinen Ausdruck. Nun, da absehbar geworden war, dass das 21. Jahrhundert kein "Amerikanisches" mehr sein würde, ging es dem Autor darum, aufzuzeigen, wie die U.S.A. ihren relativen Abstieg würdevoll bewerkstelligen könnten und sich zugleich in einer zunehmend multipolaren Welt einrichten könnten, ohne ihren Einfluss auf die westliche Welt einzubüßen.

Nach 4 Jahren Trump-Administration, die keinerlei strategic vision erkennen lässt, außer atavistischen Regungen in Teilen der Wählerschat freien Lauf zu lassen, liest sich dieses Werk wie ein Farewell auf eine Welt die einmal hätte sein können. Der Abstieg Amerikas wird durch, voraussichtlich, weitere 4 Jahre Trump zementiert; damit dürfte sich der Westen fragmentieren und Europa vor die unbequeme Frage gestellt werden, ob man Machtpolitik weiterhin verpönen will und sich damit zum Spielball raumfremder Mächte machen lässt oder ob man beginnt, das Schicksal Europas selbstbestimmt in die Hand zu nehmen. Zweifel sind angebracht. Brexit, getrieben von einer seinsvergessenen Nostalgie nach splendid isolation, sowie die putinschen Phantomschmerzen des seines Imperium beraubten Russland, lassen wenig Spielraum erkennen. Dabei wäre es aus strategischen Gründen umso wichtiger, dass sich nicht nur die EU zu einem wahren europäischen Machtstaat entwickelt sondern dass auch Russland erkennt, dass es besser sei, auf Augenhöhe mit Europa zu kooperieren anstatt sehenden Auges zum Juniorpartner Chinas degradiert zu werden, der in Peking den Kotau zu vollziehen hat.

Die westliche Welt und Russland zu einigen, zu einem Bollwerk zu schmieden um sich selbst gegen die aufstrebenden und volkreichen asiatischen Mächte zu behaupten, dies war die Rolle die Brzezinski Amerika 2011 zugedacht hat. Tragisch für den Autor, dass seine Worte ungehört verhallen; schicksalhaft für uns, die mit den Konsequenzen daraus zu leben haben werden.

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Thomas M. Morgan

Great analysis, questionable solutions

Revisado en los Estados Unidos 🇺🇸 el 31 de enero de 2012

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I'm a Morning Joe regular, and I've long admired Dr. Brzezinski. However, this prolonged memo (it's really too short to be called a "book".) makes a case for considering multiple points of view. The other reviews (when I bought the book there were none, now there are five) struck me as articulate, but leaning towards sycophancy. There's a lot to like, but it's not beyond criticism.

For example,he explains the present belief of America's decline by saying: "Six critical dimensions stand out as America's major, and increasingly threatening, liabilities:". Thefirst is an unsustainable national debt, the second our "flawed financial system", third, "widening income inequality coupled with stagnating social mobility", fourth is decaying national infrastructure, fifth is "a public that is highly ignorant about the world", while sixth is "America's increasingly gridlocked and highly partisan political system."

You've got to agree with this analysis (even though I think the analysis in WINNER TAKE ALL POLITICS by Jacob S. Hacker and Paul Pierson presents the same problems with root causes much more effectively). Brzezinski makes all these points quite cogently without belaboring the analysis. The dialogue is fast, crisp and, best of all, decidedly un-wonkish. Anyone can understand the difficult concepts.

Unfortunately, instead of providing solutions to what many economists, political scientists and social comentators have labelled "insoluble", he says that "the foreseeable future is still largely America's to shape. the United States has the capacity to correct its evident shortcomings--if it takes full advantage of its considerable strengths in the following six key areas: overall economic strength, innovative potential, demographic dynamics, reactive mobilization, geographic base, and democratic appeal."

He goes on to expand upon these six strengths, apparently unaware that he has anthropomorphized the country itself (see statement above--"if IT takes full advantage of ITS considerable strengths," etc. This is not a solution, it's a wish list. He is correct in everything he says, but it becomes perfectly clear that he is better spoken yet only linguistically superior to the politicians he advises. HE HAS NO REAL ANSWERS. HE IS SHORT ON SOLUTIONS.

This IS slightly unfair. To any specific global problem, it becomes clear he has a specific, defensible recommendation. As you read through that section of the book concerning the problem areas of the globe, you begin to wish he had been a Republican at the side of George W. Bush, whose foreign policy must have originated in some video game designer's studio. Still, he describes virtually every situation calling for sensitive limited engagement. He is without meaningful threat; his style seems to abandon confrontation. It's like he's looking for the KUMBAYAH MOMENT internationally.

Similarly disappointing, is the lack of allowance for major incidence. It's long forgotten that a great deal of the groundwork for the present relationship between the US, (then) Nationalist China, and (then DBA)"Mainland China", was the shelling of the islands of Quemoy and Matsu by the communists. This CHANGED the whole equation, underscoring the value the (then)communists placed upon eventual unification. That provocation went a long way towards establishing the US "one China" policy that Dr. Brzezinski describes eloquently in what comes off as almost a tribute to Deng Xiou Peng. What happens to this carefully crafted strategy towards rolling accomodation if there is a major war between India and Pakistan?

Weaknesses and all, though,you can stack this against any number of similar books and you still come up with a "BUY" recommendation. His analysis is brilliant. His research is spot on. His editing reeks of a fine, well-used blue pencil, and his understanding of differing global values is encyclopedic. In the final analysis, you have to appreciate this book for what it includes in a small, pithy volume, not for what he was sagacious enough to leave out.

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J. Green

Few Others are Willing to Forecast the Future

Revisado en los Estados Unidos 🇺🇸 el 28 de febrero de 2012

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I remember Zbigniew Brzezinski forecasting the fall of the Soviet Union years before the event. At the time, I thought he was crazy. Well, here he is again forecasting the future. This time I'm not so sure he's crazy.

SUMMARY: The USA, China, Russia, Japan, Europe, India, and Brazil, according to Brzezinski will be the key players in the future. Their actions will impact secondary players such as Israel, Turkey, South Korea, Iran, Afghanistan, and Mexico. The question is will the USA continue to be a powerhouse or a declining power. Brzezinski says the answer is up to the American people.
If the USA fails, China will not automatically replace America. Instead, the other key players will have a stronger influence on the secondary players which could result in regional wars and power grabs. With a strong USA, the world will continue down the road of freedom, democracy, and a free enterprise system. No other power in the world can replace the United States of America and it's influence upon the world.

BEST ABOUT THE BOOK: Brzezinski lays out six liabilities for the USA including national debt, flawed financial system, widening social inequality, decaying infrastructure, public ignorance about the world, and gridlocked politics. Then he covers six assets including overall economic strength, innovative potential, demographic dynamics, reactive mobilization, geographic base, and democratic appeal. The book touches on water distribution, global warming, ocean resources, energy shortages, and regional conflicts of the future.

WORSE ABOUT THE BOOK: Brzezinski's style of writing gets in the way of the message. In one random sentence I counted 56 words. The same could have been said in 15 words. I not sure he could have told us his name in less than 40 words. (Subtract one star.)
Brzezinski served in the Carter administration and is on the left side of the political spectrum. He had little good to say about George W. Bush's actions in Iraq and Afghanistan and where America is today as a results. Some may find this the best part of the book.

OVERALL: This is a well researched book that touches on almost every political, social, economic, and environment future event. It will make the reader think about where America is today and where it should be going. Short of having a crystal ball, Zbigniew Brzezinski had done a great job of forecasting the future. Like his forecasting the fall of the Soviet Union, few other writers are willing to stick their necks out.

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David

Muy buen análisis

Revisado en los Estados Unidos 🇺🇸 el 2 de junio de 2019

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Como siempre nos tiene acostumbrados, Brzezinski efectúa un análisis geopolitico y relacionamiento de Estados Unidos con países de interés, proponiendo en este caso cuál debería ser el curso de acción a seguir, más favorable a los intereses norteamericanos.

Hagner amp Zohlman LLC

Hope, or despair?

Revisado en los Estados Unidos 🇺🇸 el 3 de febrero de 2015

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This is a very informative book. Parallel to one theme expressed in Thomas Friedman's Hot, Flat and Crowded, the author believes that the world status of the U.S. A. Can be maintained to a certain degree if its leaders act properly and now - the condition now being of huge importance. Thus, hope, or despair? I also recommend Daniel Yergin's The Quest.

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kenneth wallace

strategic vision. america and the crisis of global power

Revisado en los Estados Unidos 🇺🇸 el 25 de junio de 2013

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even though Brzezinski has a global vision of the world, he never the less is brilliant in his knowledge of world history, its really all about ones perspective of how we would like America and its society, I personally don't agree with much of his perspective but this is a well informed study of the problems of society, which is all you should expect from one mans perspective of his vison .

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Rolando Dromundo

An obbligation for all academics that study geopolitics

Revisado en Italia 🇮🇹 el 23 de junio de 2014

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A precise view of how the United States should try to retain their hegemony in the world. A clear textbook of which should be the lines to follow in foreign policy for the US.The author portrays that only through US hegemony there could be stability in the world. This idea even though questionable, allows to contrast it with the study of other geopolitical projects to understand different regional or global geopolitical plans.

Even though, the chapter about Russia obviously proved itself wrong after the Ukrainian crisis.

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strategic vision by Brzezinski

Revisado en los Estados Unidos 🇺🇸 el 2 de mayo de 2014

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A very well researched, analytical and balanced presentation of geopolitics. Brzezinski is a great intellectual, one of the greatest political minds today. I hope world leaders in both the East and West will read this book, and aspire to make the world a better place if they truly care.

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Derek Vincent

Four Stars

Revisado en Canadá 🇨🇦 el 6 de septiembre de 2017

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Excellent book with great in sight

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GLAVAS GEORGIOS

very good

Revisado en los Estados Unidos 🇺🇸 el 24 de octubre de 2013

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Good insight into the global politics.

Really help new readers to learn a lot about what is happening around the globe.

Tremendous love of the author for Turkey.

Big hate and no recognition of the Greek civilization into the European and not only region.

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Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power

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